2025 Macroeconomic Trends Summary

Our team summarized the 2025 macroeconomic trends that will likely impact consumer behaviors going into 2026:

Consumer Confidence

Consumer sentiment has been trending steadily downward over the past several months. Since June–July 2025, the index has slid from roughly 60–62 into the low 50s, indicating a clear deterioration in sentiment through the back half of the year.​ November’s level is described as near some of the lowest points on record, reinforcing that consumers are pessimistic heading into year-end.

Government Shutdown

The 43-day shutdown reduced consumer spending, particularly among furloughed federal workers (around 700,000), hurting retail and tourism with estimated losses of $7–14 billion. Post-shutdown recovery was modest and uneven across demographics, suggesting sentiment improvements may not reverse consumer caution in Q4.

Tariffs & Inflation

Tariffs and inflation will pressure consumer spending in 2026. Inflation and stagnant wages will likely reduce discretionary spending; consumers are expected to prioritize savings.

Over a third (35%) of US adults will spend less overall in holiday shopping this year due to tariffs/price increases, per an August 2025 survey from Radial and Dynata.