Holiday 2026: Hopeful Yet Hesitant, Redefining Holiday Spending

As the 2026 holiday season approaches, retailers and marketers are entering a market defined by an interesting contradiction: consumers are seeing their disposable income continue to rise, yet their spending is slowing as they remain highly selective about where and how they spend. The result is a holiday shopping environment that promises growth, but one where every dollar must be earned. Consumers remain willing to spend, yet they are more intentional, more informed, and more value-conscious than ever before.

According to Deloitte’s 2026 holiday forecast, U.S. holiday retail sales are expected to reach between $1.70 trillion and $1.71 trillion, representing year-over-year growth of 4.0% to 4.8%. E-commerce is projected to grow even faster, increasing 7.5% to 8.4% and surpassing $316 billion in holiday spending.

Unlike the post-pandemic years marked by either pent-up demand or inflation-driven caution, 2026 shoppers are demonstrating a more calculated approach to spending. Consumers continue to prioritize experiences, gifting, and holiday traditions, but they are making deliberate trade-offs to maximize value.

Research from Deloitte suggests shoppers across income levels are increasingly comparing prices, switching brands, and seeking promotions before committing to a purchase. These behaviors are no longer temporary reactions to economic uncertainty. They have become permanent shopping habits. For brands, this means loyalty can no longer be assumed. Product quality and brand reputation still matter, but value perception increasingly determines who wins the sale.

AI Is Emerging as the New Shopping Assistant

One of the most notable shifts heading into Holiday 2026 is the growing role of AI in the purchase journey. Industry analysts increasingly view AI as a new intermediary between consumers and retailers, influencing product discovery, recommendations, comparisons, and purchase decisions. What search engines were to commerce in the 2000s, AI-powered assistants may become in the latter half of this decade.

For brands, visibility increasingly means being discoverable not only through traditional search and advertising but also within AI-powered recommendation environments.

Digital Continues to Gain Ground

The biggest growth story remains online shopping driven by mobile.

E-commerce is forecasted to outpace overall retail growth by a significant margin, reflecting consumers’ increasing reliance on digital tools to research, compare, and purchase products. Holiday shoppers are no longer moving between physical and digital channels. Instead, they operate within a connected shopping ecosystem where discovery, evaluation, and purchase happen across multiple screens. The implications for marketers are significant. Strong performance marketing, accurate audience targeting, and frictionless digital experiences will be critical as shoppers begin researching earlier and comparing options more extensively than in previous years.

What This Means for Marketers

The 2026 holiday season will not be won by simply increasing promotional activity. Consumers are expecting relevance, convenience, and value simultaneously.

Successful brands will:

• Build awareness and consideration early.
• Lead with clear value propositions.
• Use first-party data to personalize messaging.
• Maintain a strong presence across linear, streaming, social, and digital commerce channels.
• Optimize for both brand awareness and conversion.
• Leverage AI-driven insights to improve targeting and shopping experiences.

Perhaps most importantly, marketers must recognize that today’s consumer journey is rarely linear. Holiday shoppers may discover a brand on streaming video, research it on mobile, compare prices online, and ultimately purchase through a retailer app weeks later.

The brands that win this season will be those that understand a simple truth: consumers have not stopped spending. They’ve simply become more selective about who earns their business.